A take a look at the provision/demand dynamic for Manhattan and Brooklyn leases means that rents are going up.

Regardless of worries about oversupply and decrease demand within the business sector, the alternative dynamic seems to be happening within the residential sector. The year-over-year change within the variety of new rental listings is beginning to fall because the market heads into the usually busy summer time.

Whereas the times of 30% and better lease will increase are seemingly previously, with present asking rents already approaching their highs, it is not going to take an enormous transfer to push previous these highs into file territory.

For example, as seen above, the median asking lease in Manhattan is at present solely $50 under the record-high, set throughout the summer time of 2022. Even the slightest little bit of renter competitors will propel rents greater. Trying on the chart under, displaying the declining variety of new rental listings in Manhattan, it’s clear that issues are about to get fascinating.

Brooklyn, too, is experiencing lots of the similar points, albeit not as acutely as Manhattan. As seen under, the present median asking lease in Brooklyn is $3,600, 5% under the file excessive set final summer time.

Nonetheless, like Manhattan, the extent of latest rental listings is dropping off.

Taken collectively, an uptick in renter demand in Brooklyn might simply energy asking rents to new highs.

Certainly, even breaking down the info into neighborhoods exhibits that every one areas in Manhattan and Brooklyn stay below stress.

Final spring, I wrote about how rents sharply elevated on a share foundation as a result of pandemic’s whipsaw impact. At the moment, the discuss was concerning the surge in rents, which, when seen in opposition to pre-pandemic measures, have been up lower than 10%. Now, nonetheless, the dialogue is just not essentially concerning the rise in rents, however relatively the extent of lease. In different phrases, will rents ever go down once more?

Not anytime quickly, if the decrease quantity of provide has something to say. The next chart appears to be like at how the month-to-month rental provide for 2023 in Manhattan (blue) and Brooklyn (crimson) is doing this 12 months in comparison with the common for every month in earlier years (2019-2022). The comparability exhibits a solidly unfavourable development that implies renters in the present day are getting into a really landlord-friendly atmosphere. Trying again to the provision/demand dynamics charts earlier, it may be seen that rents are likely to fall considerably solely after a notable improve in provide. That’s actually not the case in the present day in both Manhattan or Brooklyn.

With tight provide, renters shall be pressured to compete to signal leases. Which means asking rents needs to be seen extra as a information than a aim. In actuality, a superbly succesful condo for lease in a superbly regular neighborhood asking $3,500 per thirty days will seemingly be swarmed with potential tenants. On this state of affairs, the ultimate lease might method $4,000 as individuals weigh their choices for not going greater than the following particular person.

Briefly, because the Manhattan and Brooklyn rental markets head into the busy summer time, all indicators level to greater rents within the months to come back. With tomorrow’s rents seemingly greater than in the present day’s, potential tenants needing to signal leases within the subsequent few months would do properly to investigate their native market and weigh whether or not paying a premium in the present day to safe an condo is likely to be worthwhile, relatively than doubtlessly paying much more in a few months. Alternatively, it is likely to be price comparison-shopping the gross sales market over the summer time, when it’s usually quieter, to see if it is likely to be time to purchase.